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31 million. With lower young adult smoking prevalence in 2018, the future smoking-related mortality estimate is 3.66 million. For 2024, the estimate is 2.54 million. Conclusions The SGR estimate depended on assumptions that no longer held a few years later. Yet advocates for youth smoking prevention cite it frequently today. Considerations such as this paper's calculations, decreasing smoking initiation rates, increasing cessation, better screening for and treatment of smoking-related diseases, and smoking's increasing social unacceptab
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