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1% to -0.3%, with the average being -26.4%. The lower RCchange (corresponding to more significant runoff reduction) in drought years was more likely to occur in catchments with dryer climate and lower elevation. The simulated RCchange by the multivariate generalized additive model demonstrated a good agreement with observed RCchange, and the values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between observed and simulated RCchange were 0.77 for training catchments and 0.72 for testing catchments. Finally, we applied the model to extrapolate RCchange
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